President William Ruto Ties With Edwin Sifuna at 31% in Presidential Poll

The Trends Insight for Africa (TIFA) opinion poll released on Thursday November 12, 2026 shows President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna each commanding 31 percent support, placing them as joint frontrunners for the 2027 presidential election.

Ruto’s rating has risen from 18 percent in August 2022 to 31 percent in November 2026, after earlier levels of 16 percent in September 2025, 19 percent in November 2025 and 24 percent in both May and June 2026. Sifuna, who recorded no measurable support in surveys up to November 2025, registered 10 percent in May 2026, 15 percent in June 2026 and 31 percent in November 2026.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, who led earlier polls with 32 percent in August 2022, fell to 5 percent in November 2026 after a gradual decline through 21 percent in September 2025, 18 percent in November 2025 and 14 percent in May and June 2026. Former Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka dropped to 9 percent in November 2026, down from a peak of 25 percent in November 2025 and intermediate levels of 19 percent in May 2026 and 13 percent in June 2026. Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua recorded 4 percent in November 2026, down from 9 percent in May 2026, while Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro attracted 1 percent support.

Support for other unnamed potential candidates fell from a high of 14 percent in September 2025 to 1 percent in November 2026. The proportion of undecided respondents decreased to 15 percent in November, down from 20 percent in June 2026, and those who gave no response remained at 4 percent.

The poll notes that the figures represent respondents’ stated preferences at the time of the survey and do not constitute a prediction of the eventual election outcome, acknowledging that political alliances and campaign developments could reshape the contest.