TIFA Poll Shows Linda Mwananchi Movement Leads Nairobi With 26% Support

The Trends and Insights for Africa (TIFA) Research survey released on November 12, 2026 finds the Linda Mwananchi Movement (LMM) is the most popular political party in Nairobi, receiving 26 percent support.

The poll places LMM ahead of the Democratic Congress Party (DCP) at 11 percent, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 9 percent, the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 8 percent, and both the Wiper Patriotic Front and Jubilee Party at 7 percent each, while 31 percent of Nairobi respondents said they do not identify with any party.

Nationally, UDA remains the leading party with 25 percent support, LMM is second with 17 percent, ODM fell to 10 percent, DCP recorded 9 percent, Wiper 5 percent and Jubilee 4 percent, and 26 percent of Kenyans nationwide said they have no party affiliation.

Regionally, LMM’s strongest backing is in Western Kenya at 40 percent, followed by Nairobi at 26 percent, Nyanza at 18 percent and the Coast at 16 percent; UDA’s strongest bases are in Northern Kenya (60 percent) and the Central Rift (56 percent); ODM leads in Nyanza with 33 percent; and Wiper dominates the Lower Eastern region with 50 percent.

The survey, conducted between October 26 and November 5, 2026 through face-to-face interviews with 2,036 adults across all 47 counties, also measured presidential preferences, showing President William Ruto and Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna tied at 31 percent nationally, with Sifuna’s support rising from 15 percent in June to 31 percent; in Nairobi, Sifuna leads at 39 percent, ahead of Ruto at 13 percent, Kalonzo Musyoka at 11 percent and Fred Matiang’i at 10 percent.

Opposition to the proposed broad-based government arrangement between UDA and ODM stands at 43 percent nationally and 57 percent in Nairobi, while support for the arrangement is 32 percent nationally and 13 percent in Nairobi.

The poll indicates a significant proportion of the electorate remains unaffiliated, with 31 percent of Nairobi residents and 26 percent of the national sample indicating no party affiliation, rising to 38 percent in the Coast and Mt Kenya regions.