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ODM is dying, Raila is not good at multi–tasking

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Opposition leader Raila Odinga’s appointment to the African Union as an envoy will definitely have a negative impact on the Orange Democratic Movement.

Raila has a challenge. He is not good at multi-tasking. Once he gets into something, he forgets about his foot soldiers. When the former Lang’ata MP was appointed Prime Minister, he poured his energy into national issues and forgot his party.

Now that he has an AU assignment, if you read him, his focus is on the international assignment. While on assignment, he will not zero-in on the politics of the day to know how to build his party.

Raila will not have much time to listen to everyday activities of the party. In fact, we will see more jostling in the party. Right now, the two deputies — Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho — have declared their interests in running for president in 2022.

Expect more elbowing. We are witnessing the jockeying between ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna and party chairman John Mbadi.

If their fight continues, this will weaken the party. If the people given the responsibility to run and build a party are preoccupied with internal wars, you know very well that we will not find it vibrant again.

Raila’s foot soldiers are engaged in supremacy wars instead of building the party, which will definitely enfeeble ODM. When Raila comes back, he will still have the power to sanction them. However, it will be too late. He has to strengthen the party since coalition agreements are done by the party.

The ODM of 2007 was vibrant. The ODM of 2013 was weaker and the ODM of 2017 was much weaker. And if Raila is not playing at centre stage, the party will definitely be diminished.

You can see this from the elective posts. If there are any by-elections from now on, you will see how ODM struggles.

The party is becoming debilitated and we can argue it’s providing Raila with an avenue to exit national politics.

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