Coronavirus is here, let’s all play our part in limiting its virulence

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s raft of precautionary measures against the spread of coronavirus has helped to underline the potential and explosive seriousness of this contagion.

But regardless of whether it spreads or not in Kenya, the fallout from it is going to be both dramatic and cataclysmic in many different ways.

To put it another way, the President’s measures are largely health and safety-driven aimed at preventing and containing the virus. They involve a range of regulatory measures limiting everything from social interaction and travel to actual economic activity.

So regardless of whether the virus spreads, the preventive and containment measures put in place will have a huge social and economic effect.

They are going to seriously limit both social and economic activity leading to a slowdown in the economy.

This is not a criticism of the measures but an observation of their by-product. It is the necessary price we need to pay to at least restrict the virulence of this virus.

Let us turn to the bigger picture. If the virus was to get even a toehold in Kenya, how well would we cope with it on the medical front?

It is widely acknowledged and accepted that our public health system is overstretched and thinly spread throughout much of the country.

The facilities are there but are starved of resources, both in personnel and medical equipment and supplies. One only needs to go to any of them on an ordinary day to see this and the commendable job that is done bearing in mind the constraints.

If it was confronted by a number of coronavirus cases it would not only struggle to cope but would result in other vital services suffering as these limited resources are diverted.

It is important to bear in mind that this is a global scourge and so even assembling adequate resources and support from around the world is no small task.

In short, the country would be hard-pressed to cope, especially if it was nationwide.

If there was such a scenario, then like the newly introduced preventive measures, the price to be paid, both socially and economically, would be high.

The country would almost certainly experience major interruptions.

Even if we are largely spared the virus domestically, the effects of coronavirus on our economy would still be felt.

China is the largest factory in the world so inevitably when the country had its outbreaks, its many supply chains were interrupted leading to intermittent shortages.

Indeed the reliance, some would argue dependence, on China for so many goods and services meant that supply chain interruptions resulted in a number of handbrakes being placed on our own economy.

It is difficult to put an exact price tag on this but inevitably costs went up.

Europe is the largest source of tourists for Kenya, especially in Coast region. The coronavirus outbreaks in Italy have literally halted the supply of tourists from there, with a number of resorts and hotels being inundated with cancellations.

When one combines that with the cancellations of conferences and from domestic tourists, the overall effect on Coast tourism is painfully high.

However, it should not be seen only in terms of a slump in tourism bookings but also in terms the downward ripple effect on all the goods and services dependent on tourists.

A number of Coast resorts have become eerily quiet and empty and in effect, the low season has started early.

When one puts all these factors together, one can see that the overall effect on our economy could be devastating.

The rogue factor about coronavirus is that it has the ability to hit the country and economy from different directions. The effects of this contagion are arguably at an early stage and have some way to run. How far is the million-dollar question.