Democracy is dying; we now need a lockdown exit strategy

As the coronavirus pandemic edges towards an inexorable peak, countries are beginning to turn the spotlight on possible strategies to exit lockdowns.

During his addresses to the nation on Covid-19 on April 16, President Uhuru Kenyatta announced that the government was “working towards formulating Kenya’s Post-Covid-19 Economic Recovery Plan”.

But even more comprehensive, this week, Washington unveiled wide-ranging guidelines for a post-coronavirus recovery plan, “Opening Up America Again”.

Propelling these proposed recovery blueprints is the fundamental truth that lockdowns, curfews and quarantines are everywhere destroying economies and livelihoods.

They risk fuelling social discontent, which, in turn, could morph into protests or food riots, especially in poor countries.

Anti-Covid-19 iron curtains are also exacting a heavy toll on civil liberties, making the future of liberties uncertain. The real victim of shutdowns is democracy, now facing a perfect storm as countries, one by one, postpone scheduled elections.

Simply put, the coronavirus has effectively brought Samuel Huntington’s “third wave of democracy” to a sudden and tragic end.

And responses to the novel virus seem to tilt public opinion in favour of strong governments and centralised regimes as better in handling Covid-19 and other emergencies.

Measures to contain the pandemic have been neither seamless nor static. Rather, they have been highly dynamic, ranging from draconian total lockdowns to soft response regimes of targeted, localised and time-bound quarantines and curfews.

The success of these responses has also been mixed. On the one end, the city-by-city quarantine in Hubei province to stop the spread of the virus out of Wuhan city enabled China to slowly recover from the epidemic — although the real contours of Beijing’s exit strategy from the lockdown are still unclear.

On the other extreme, liberal grandstanding and laissez faire responses have wreaked havoc on at-risk populations.

As of April 18, the US had the most confirmed active cases and deaths in the world, forcing Washington to declare all its fifty states “disaster areas”.

What is becoming crystal clear is that stay-at-home measures to contain the new virus are eroding democracy.

As Americans debate the wisdom of continuing primary contests for democratic presidential nominees and as states scramble to delay their spring primaries, experts are fretting that the coronavirus has put the integrity of the 2020 US election at risk.

Conducting a nationwide election in November 2020 is itself viewed as a risk that will expose voters, poll workers, election officials and candidates to the disease. That said, postponing the election is not on the cards.

Faced with scheduled elections, most European countries are electing to err on the side of caution.

According to a recent Brookings Institution report, "European Elections in the Time of Coronavirus", at least eight European countries have postponed scheduled local, regional, parliamentary, and presidential elections and constitutional referendums, including France, Italy, Poland, Serbia, Spain and the United Kingdom.

Some 11 other countries in Europe are also likely to defer coming elections.

In Asia, South Korea held its election amid the coronavirus outbreak, with President Moon Jae-in reaping the dividends of his effective response to the pandemic as voters rewarded his party with the biggest majority since the country’s transition to democracy in 1987.

Similarly, in Africa, Guinea went to the polls in late March to elect members of parliament and vote on a proposed constitutional reform despite the threat of the pandemic.

Conversely, elsewhere on the continent, postponing elections is the trend. In April, Ethiopia’s electoral body announced it will postpone general elections that were scheduled for the end of August because of the coronavirus outbreak.

In Kenya, the country’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission delayed five by-elections in early April due to the coronavirus outbreak.

And public debate on the Building Bridges Initiative report, expected to culminate in a constitutional referendum, is in cold storage as a result of a nationwide curfew and restrictions on travel and meetings.

It is unclear what will happen in Côte d’Ivoire and Burundi, where presidents Ouattara and Nkurunziza, respectively, are expected to step down, paving the way for new elected successors.

Africa needs to develop strategies to guide the exit from the ongoing quarantines and curfews and return to normality in the coming months. But what will a lockdown exit strategy look like? This will vary from country to country.

Washington’s comprehensive guidelines reveal a localised Covid-19 recovery strategy with states, regional groupings and counties as its main planks.

In this regard, the blueprint entreats states and local officials to tailor the application of the guidelines and criteria to their localised circumstances — taking into account areas that have suffered severe outbreaks, rural and suburban areas where outbreaks have not occurred or have been mild.

For its part, Kenya’s Covid-19 exit strategy will have to pivot towards its 47 counties. The government is already working with the Council of Governors and individual governors to deliver support to vulnerable citizens.

Whatever form they may take — localised or centralised — exit strategies must underline public awareness and strict adherence to hygienic measures to contain Covid-19.

These include washing hands with soap and water or using sanitiser; avoiding touching one’s face; sneezing or coughing into a tissue, or onto one’s elbow; disinfecting frequently used items and surfaces such as tables, and using face coverings or masks while in public, particularly when using mass transit.

County-by-county or region-by-region recovery plans are urgently needed to sustain the war on the virus while guiding the recovery of economies and democracies.

Prof Peter Kagwanja is CEO of the Africa Policy Institute and a former government adviser.