Uhuru, DP at a crossroads as plebiscite, party elections beckon

The fact that President Uhuru Kenyatta and his deputy, William Ruto, no longer sing the same tune has been an open book since at least last year, when the ‘Handshake’ happened. The split was on open display at the launch of the BBI report at Bomas on November 27.

An enduring image of that event was that of the DP apparently locked out of a VIP holding room where Uhuru and Raila Odinga were holding a pre-conference meeting. Another was the sight of the President rocking in gales of happy laughter (with Ruto sitting in stony silence) as the ODM emcee, MP Junet Mohammed, gave his cheeky deal-with-your-mess-in-Jubilee jibe at National Assembly Majority Leader Aden Duale. That was immediately before the podium rage by Senator Kipchumba Murkomen. Heavy stuff, that lockout.

This year’s open fracturing of Jubilee into Kieleweke and Tangatanga camps is another indicator that the differences between the President and his deputy may be irreconcilable. Even the Jubilee ladies broke into bitterly feuding factions – the pro-Kieleweke ‘Embrace’ and the pro-Tangatanga ‘Inua Mama.’ The Cabinet, too, looks divided. Speaking during a recent outing to Kirinyaga, Interior CS Fred Matiang’i said he will not take “nonsense” from those who expect dual allegiance to the Presidency.

The tell-tale rift between the two Jubilee principals (Ruto maintains the relationship is “solid”) was clearly one of the biggest – albeit muted – stories since the ‘Handshake’. The outcome of the extended BBI mandate is bound to widen the split. That is if the panel, which will now include a ‘political’ team, comes up with proposals which the DP considers unpalatable.

Way back, Ruto and his troops sent notice that they will oppose BBI if it recommends an increase in executive seats, principally that of an executive prime minister and two proposed deputies. Ruto’s stated rationale is that the added cost will only burden taxpayers.

Yet this cannot be his true concern. As somebody aspiring to become president, he presumably would wish to inherit an undiluted Presidency where the Cabinet answers solely to him.

The other potential flashpoint is certain to come in March when Jubilee Party elections are, by law, meant to be held. Expect a bitter showdown between Kieleweke and Tangatanga, maybe even a parting of ways.

Whatever happened between the President and his deputy has been the subject of intense speculation. Evidently, something did happen that changed completely the bosom buddyship they used to display during their first term.

You can clearly tell from their separate itineraries these days. Is it because of the non-stop campaigning by the DP, which Uhuru deplores but has been roundly rebuffed? Has it something to do with the well-known allegations of corruption? Even Kalonzo Musyoka did not shy away from alluding to the rupture when former Senator Johnstone Muthama implored him to team up with Ruto. The Wiper leader gave a curious answer to the effect that he did not wish anybody to drive a wedge between him and the President through such an undertaking. Mmmm.

Another explanation is more sinister. It holds that Uhuru had his misgivings over Ruto right from the first term, but he opted to hold his horses until he was safely re-elected in 2017. If indeed Uhuru had hidden the antipathy so well during all that time when Ruto was carrying himself as a co-president, then he surely must be the slyest character in this part of the world.

It is notable that the brickbats against the DP by Uhuru’s associates such as David Murathe, the former Gatanga MP, only started when the second term commenced. Initiatives against corruption that infuriated Ruto’s allies such as the stalled lifestyle audits were announced in earnest only after the first term was over. On other fronts, the DPP and DCI have been greatly empowered, though it by no means suggests their anti-corruption drive is targeted at Ruto’s people only.

By design or otherwise, Uhuru has found in Raila the perfect battering ram to use against the DP. Ever since the ‘Handshake,’ the ODM leader has put Ruto on the defensive. Raila likes a fight. The DP too, and now has his hands full with one. Meanwhile, the President poses like he has taken a back seat.

Sometime this year, Ruto gave a revealing interview to a local TV station where he made a fairly startling claim. According to the DP, Raila had approached him for some kind of alliance after the 2017 post-election government appointments seemed to lean more with Uhuru’s appointees, unlike the 2013 government when the spoils were shared more or less fifty-fifty. Raila never commented publicly about Ruto’s claim. Neither did Uhuru.

Was Ruto implying Uhuru reached out to Raila in order to outflank him? If indeed a referendum on BBI is held this coming year, or the next, the gloves will definitely be off.

It will be the time of true reckoning.