It’s the year to put country on runway

Happy New Year dear readers! We join the rest of the world in marking the first day of 2019. The New Year carries with it new tidings and hopes. Opportunities abound; so are challenges. Success depends on the foundations that we establish at this early stage and the commitment to execute the plans.

As a country, we are coming out of a turbulent period characterised by political animosity, economic hardships and social challenges. For most of last year, we struggled to recover from the shocks of the 2017 elections. The key milestone was the rapprochement between erstwhile political rivals Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga in March that dramatically changed the equation and set the country on a path of reconciliation and recovery.

A number of issues will dominate the national landscape. Top on the cards is the flagging economy and rising debt burden. Economic indicators show inflation was below double-digits last year. The average economic growth was 5.5 percent. Agriculture was relatively robust, owing to good rains and steady food prices. But the economic indicators were below projections. For the country to grow, experts postulate continuous growth at 10 per cent. We are halfway there — but below the growth years of the Mwai Kibaki era, when at one point the economy grew at seven percent.

The challenge for President Kenyatta is to put in place prudent policies to spur real growth. At present, the focus is on four pillars — agriculture, health, housing and manufacturing. But beyond the podium pronouncements, there is no roadmap to actualise them to leverage economic growth and national development.

A more worrying issue is the debt portfolio. We closed the year with Sh5.1 trillion on the debt register — projected to hit Sh5.6 trillion in June and Sh7 trillion in 2022, when President Kenyatta’s second and final term ends. Essentially, the debt is nearly double the annual budget of Sh3 trillion. Experts, and even donors, have warned that Kenya is walking precariously to the edge. We are nearly at the tipping point.

Uncharacteristically, the leadership is not bothered. The President has consistently argued that the country can meet its obligations. But we are not convinced. Recently, Auditor-General Edward Ouko warned about the risk to national assets such as the port should the country default on the Chinese loan used to build the standard gauge railway. That is not an idle threat.

In the social sector, education reform will take centre stage. Already, the government has declared intent to roll out a new curriculum that markedly departs from the current 8-4-4 system. On paper, the 2-6-3-3 system, sounds novel. But clearly, its implementation is bound to be chaotic because of official blundering. Procrastination and policy bluffs have created a mess out of the endeavour. Empirical evidence has been adduced showing the country is ill-prepared to roll it out this year due to lack of finances, infrastructure, teaching and learning resources and competent teachers — but the government is hell-bent on running with it.

Education reform is a momentous undertaking. It creates or destroys a country. If poorly conceptualised and badly executed, it can ruin a generation. This is why we ask President Kenyatta and his administration to think through the process and, given the technical and practical evidence, postpone the roll-out for at least a year to allow for proper ground work. Tied to that, he requires competent and visionary leadership to steer it.

Another task for the administration is the war on corruption. Already, laudable efforts were made in 2018 to seize and charge high-profile suspects. Unfortunately, most cases have not been concluded, raising serious questions about the efficacy of investigations, prosecution and trials. Mere arrests and prosecutions are not enough. What is important is conviction and recovery of stolen assets. Corruption must be made painful and expensive.

Crucially, the referendum debate is bound to feature strongly. Closely linked to it is the succession quest as politicians align themselves for the post-Kenyatta era. Our concern is that the thrust for constitutional change is to create positions and entrench political interests at the expense of vital issues. Any legal reform must be designed to improve the welfare of Kenyans.

After the nasty politics of last year, the country needs sanity. Politicians should spare us the empty noises. Focus should be on economic growth, tackling youth unemployment, revitalising social sectors such as health and education, fighting graft and intensifying infrastructure development. It is incumbent upon the President to provide the leadership to realise all these.