What went wrong in Cairo? Kenya had best defence in Afcon qualifiers

En route to qualifying for the 2019 Africa Cup of Nations in Cairo, Harambee Stars conceded only once, and that was away in Ghana in the final moments of a dead rubber game as both teams had already qualified.

The other two goals they conceded in Freetown at the start of the campaign were cancelled after Sierra Leone were disqualified.

In Accra, they conceded cheaply – a slow low shot to the left bottom corner of Patrick Matasi’s goal, scored by Caleb Ekuban in the 83rd minute at the National Stadium.

At the end of the campaign, in which Kenya was pooled alongside Ghana and Ethiopia, Stars had a goal difference of +2, scoring five times and conceding thrice, if you include the Sierra Leone game that was eventually meaningless after they were disqualified.

Otherwise, if you eliminate the score line of 2-1 in favour of the Leone Stars, then Harambee Stars end up with the same goal difference of +2, scored three past Ethiopia and conceded one against Ghana.

On paper, Harambee Stars had the best defence in the qualification, having conceded just a single goal. Only Ghana – probably also assisted by Sierra Leone’s disqualification, achieved a similar feat, conceding just a single goal – from Kenya’s 1-0 win in Nairobi. In Group E, South Africa had conceded just two goals, same as Mali who won Group C and Senegal, who won Group A. Three teams conceded just three goals, including Uganda who won Group L. With this defensive form, it was expected that Sebastian Migne’s boys would put some form of resistance in Cairo, but it was not to be. Algeria quickly dispatched the boys, scoring two past Matasi in the first half. Then minnows Taifa Stars put in another two before Johanna Omollo’s goal and a Michael Olunga brace restored a semblance of a competition and prevented what could have been an embarrassing defeat.

Despite the hard-fought-win, it was clear that Kenya’s backline was compromised. That is why many fans still congratulated the team after the 3-0 thrashing by Senegal; It could have been worse going by the statistics. Senegal had 10 shots on target compared to Kenya’s two. That is why despite holding on for an hour, Stars crumbled like a piece of cake soaking in three goals in 14 minutes of defensive madness and earning an immediate return ticket to Nairobi. Stars had probably the worst defensive record, with Matasi conceding an average of 2.3 goals per game — only Tanzania’s Metacha Mnata and Aishi Manula did worse, conceding an average 3.0 and 2.5 goals per match respectively. Kenya was the only team that conceded more than one penalty in the group stages, and overall conceded an average 23.3 fouls per game –  according to Sofascore. Only Algeria had a worse record of 24.0 – but at least for them it worked their way to winning the group. So, if Stars managed to concede just a single valid goal in qualification, what went so wrong that they soaked over half a dozen in Cairo? There are many factors, but the most obvious is the injuries to key defenders Brian Mandela and Joash Onyango, who had done splendid work in the qualifiers.

Then there is the issue of questionable player selection and finally the game plan. Some pundits have argued that it was stage fright and inexperience, but that theory does not hold considering the bleach done by Tanzania’s Taifa Stars, our bitter regional foes.

I will explore the theory of injury to key players who had done duty in the qualifiers and questionable selections to the final squad. I say questionable because for the team that did duty in Cairo at least two defenders were playing out of their natural positions – covering their absent colleagues. Musa Mohamed played as center back while Eric Ouma played as a winger – leaving many pundits wondering why Paul Were and his wing buddies were shipped to Cairo in the first place.

It is probably playing out of position that led to lots of mix-ups at the backline, exposing Matasi on goal. To get this properly, you need to digest the fact that rookie Joseph Okumu played for the senior team first time in Cairo finishing the group stages as Kenya’s best defender with 6.0 clearances per match – only Benin’s David Kiki and Guinea Bissau’s Rudinlison Silva had a better record of 7.0 and 10.0 respectively. What does this tell you? Our problem was the defence, not the attack – you can’t attack if you can’t defend. Football basics.

You can excuse injuries in football, it happens all the time, but the players selected to cover the injured players should be able to do duty or at least look like they are up to it. In this case the understudies were mostly left on the bench and the available compatriots were – in my observation – largely played out of position. This is why Migne’s final Afcon squad has been questioned, and questions will continue to be raised if the technical bench doesn’t pick its lessons from the Cairo defensive crumble.

The writer works at Tullow Oil Kenya and is an ardent Harambee Stars supporter;