Opinion | Trump Hands China an Easy Win in the Trade War

Even if a trade deal with the United States is still possible, some in the Chinese leadership are now starting to ask, why bother? They argue that in technology, investment, foreign policy, national security and human rights, the Trump administration has made it clear that it has embarked on a more adversarial position toward China. So why should Beijing expend any more political capital on a trade deal? Perhaps it’s better, in China’s view, to cut its losses now and get ready for the next Cold War.

If that’s what the Trump administration wants, its strategy has been a great success. If not, and the president really wants a trade deal, with reasonable decreases in the bilateral trade deficit, and some substantive changes in Chinese economic behavior, the American negotiating strategy requires some serious recalibration.

Of course, China’s public position is that negotiations can continue. Even within the framework of the new “red lines,” there may still be room for a deal. China might agree to purchase more American goods, with America yielding on the retention of tariffs, and the unilateral right to impose tariffs later. However, the degree of difficulty in getting to an agreement has now increased substantially.

The bottom line is that nationalism is not just a factor in Trump’s America. It’s now a big factor in Xi Jinping’s China as well, reinforced through the prism of Chinese history. In most of its dealings with America over the last 100 years, China has seen itself as weak. Today, in Beijing’s view, China is weak no longer.

Kevin Rudd, a former prime minister of Australia, is president of the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York.

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