For Forecasters, Hurricane Dorian Has Already Been a Handful

Hobbyists and forecasters often look at much of the same publicly available data from the National Hurricane Center and elsewhere. But forecasters have often spent years studying atmospheric science, learning what affects storms’ movements and how to distill hundreds of models into a reasonable prediction.

In recent days, expert forecasters like John Morales have turned to tools like Facebook Live to broadcast for longer periods of time, allowing them to share more thorough information. The hope is that viewers will understand why pinpointing a hurricane’s path can be almost impossible more than three days before it is predicted to run ashore.

In 1992, before Hurricane Andrew, Mr. Morales sat in front of a bulky television set in the studios of the local Univision affiliate and warned viewers to prepare for storm surge of up to 14 feet. His forecasts were fleeting, available to loyal fans only when the electricity and television were on.

Now, Mr. Morales spends every free minute forecasting Hurricane Dorian online. On television, he works only in the Miami media market. On social media, he serves a robust following in Florida, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

He especially likes the ability to speak in detail on Facebook Live, he said, often in a T-shirt from the comfort of his Miami home. When he started the broadcasts a few years ago, his wife would hold up a phone and his computer screen as he pointed at images. He has since upgraded to a desktop with a webcam, a large external microphone and software that allows him to draw on top of his models.

Constantly taking questions does not mean Mr. Morales’s followers like his answers.

“People are always seeking a deterministic, definitive answer,” he said during a rare break from his appearances as the chief meteorologist on Miami’s NBC News affiliate and on his online streams. “And generally speaking, the world meteorologists live in is one of probabilistic language.”

Mr. Morales has become something of a local celebrity meteorologist, a calming, reliable voice willing to field followers’ questions and offer lengthy explanations for the dreaded weather to come.