All administrations have taken into account the timing of arms sales to Taiwan in order to avoid upsetting Beijing at critical moments.
“There is never a good time to sell arms to Taiwan, but this timing is probably the worst possible choice,” said Evan S. Medeiros, professor in Asian studies at Georgetown University and senior Asia director on Mr. Obama’s National Security Council. “Trade talks will stall, China will try to hit American companies hard and Chinese will see a conspiratorial link between U.S. support for Taiwan and Hong Kong.”
The Chinese government has blamed the United States for the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, though Mr. Trump has not made any strong statements in support of the protesters. Mr. Bolton has forcefully warned Beijing against any potential crackdown. He and other senior foreign policy advisers have urged Mr. Trump to declare a similar position on humanitarian grounds. Lawmakers from both parties and policy experts have also called for the president to advocate human rights.
“President Trump should not be equivocating on this,” said Kelly Magsamen, a senior Asia policy official in the Pentagon during the Obama administration. “He should be using the power of his office to press Xi Jinping to avoid a violent escalation. Instead, he’s sending all the opposite signals and pretending he has no influence.”
Mr. Trump’s top foreign policy aides generally see China as the greatest strategic rival to the United States and advocate aggressive positions. Mr. Trump has a transactional view of China and is focused almost entirely on narrowing the trade deficit. He has said China and the United States are “strategic partners” and expresses admiration for Mr. Xi, saying they “will always be friends.”
At the urging of officials concerned about the trade talks, the administration has refrained from enacting sanctions against Chinese officials deemed responsible for the detention of one million or more Muslims. Human rights advocates are pressing the administration to move ahead with those.
Some analysts said despite the growing acrimony, Washington and Beijing might be able to keep the dispute over the Taiwan arms sales separate from the difficult trade negotiations.
“China will condemn the sale, of course,” said Bonnie S. Glaser, senior Asia adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But Beijing’s objections are primarily political, not military. This will not likely derail the trade talks unless China is looking for an excuse to not hold them.”