Opinion | Does Germany’s Vaunted Car Industry Have Long to Live?

Within the European Union, too, Germany has invested heavily in protecting its automotive industry. When the bloc introduced limits on carbon dioxide emissions for cars in 2013, Ms. Merkel was able to water down the commission’s proposal in favor of Germany’s automakers, many of which specialize in large vehicles with high emissions. She could not repeat the trick in 2018, however. In 2020, new and stricter rules will kick in.

Ironically, the industry ended up weaker for Germany’s protectionist politics within the union, experts say. Under the lax European Union carbon dioxide caps, German car builders had little incentive to modernize their fleets. So while they kept on building and selling tank-like vehicles, companies like Tesla developed rapidly, leaving Germany behind both technologically and in securing markets. Part of the big job cuts the industry is facing now can be attributed to this failure.

Instead of just building cleaner cars, German carmakers took to cheating, destroying the image of the honest German merchant and engineer. Over the past few years, Germans have had to learn that Volkswagen and other German carmakers were involved in developing and deploying software that activated controls on nitrogen oxide emissions during testing only, while real-world emissions were much higher.

Last but not least, cars have become the object of an increasingly bitter culture war in the country. A number of forces — climate change, clogged streets, limited parking — have coalesced to generate a coalition, mostly based in liberal urban milieus, that is pushing for a car-free future. Berlin, Stuttgart and Frankfurt have eliminated certain types of diesel vehicles from parts of their inner cities to comply with European Union air pollution limits. Some policymakers from the Green Party, which is growing in strength, have lobbied for radical changes, such as a total end to combustion engines by 2030.

But the backlash to such policy proposals has been fierce. It is probably fair to say that most Germans can’t imagine life without a car — sometimes for understandable reasons. When you’re older or living in the countryside or in a small town, getting around without a car is still practically impossible. Cultural antipathies play a role, too, however. A majority of Germans think they may be forced to bow to the utopian ideas of a handful of inner-city Berliners. The far-right populist Alternative for Germany party, good at detecting anger, is already running a pro-diesel campaign.

So far, German carmakers have been able to sit back and watch these two factions fight it out: The market share of S.U.V.s and off-road vehicles has just reached another record high; approximately every third car newly registered in Germany is either an S.U.V. or an off-road vehicle. In that regard, too, cars reflect the state of the nation — that is, our hypocrisy. Germany talks a big game on the environment, but its drivers buy tanks. Germany talks innovation but cheats on emissions tests. Germany discusses showing more leadership in international relations but has trouble seeing past its own economic interests.

And yet the dire pessimism over the future of Germany’s car industry that currently dominates the public discourse in my country may be too dark after all — just as analysis writing the country off may be premature. Professor Dudenhöffer finds German car builders are finally shifting gears under the threat of huge union fines if the automakers do not add more low- or no-emissions vehicles to their fleets. These shifts show companies like Volkswagen are still well capable of competing with the technological avant-garde. (In fact, VW’s Audi subsidiary is cutting those 9,500 jobs to free up money to invest in electric vehicles.)