What to Expect From the November Jobs Report

The Labor Department will release the latest hiring and unemployment figures for November at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Here’s what to watch for:

• Wall Street analysts are forecasting a stronger showing than the previous month, with payroll gains of 180,000, up from the 128,000 initially reported for October.

• The unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.6 percent.

• Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3 percent, after moving up 0.2 percent in October. That would bring the year-over-year increase to 3 percent.

Gains May Be Weaker Than They Appear

However fat — or thin — November’s payrolls gains may look, the jump in hiring will not be as big as the report’s totals might suggest. Nearly 50,000 striking workers at General Motors returned to their jobs last month. Their six-week walkout meant that they were not included in the government’s October surveys.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at the accounting firm Grant Thornton, said the job creation numbers could be further inflated by another 12,000 workers at auto suppliers and related businesses, who were also not working because of the G.M. strike and have now been rehired. She is also keeping her eye out for job losses related to reductions in the number of temporary Census workers.

Thus, she and other analysts say, it will be more important than usual to look at the categories where the job gains are the strongest and weakest.

Workers Are Leaving the Sidelines

One of the best consequences of a tight labor market is that the American work force has been expanding. Employers have widened their scope and become more open to recruiting people whom they might not have a few years earlier, including those who have disabilities or criminal records. Older baby boomers are working past retirement age, and stay-at-home parents are switching to paid employment.

The labor force participation rate inched up through most of the spring and fall, driven in part by an increase in women ages 25 to 34 getting jobs or looking for work. Over the last year, nearly 1.7 million more people joined the ranks of workers.

As Michael Gapen, chief United States economist at Barclays, points out, a bounce in participation is the equivalent of a bounce in productivity. “Progress is coming in a way that’s not inflationary,” he said, and it makes it easier for the Federal Reserve to hold off increasing its benchmark interest rate. October’s participation rate was 63.3 percent. Look for even small increases, especially among 25-to-54 year-olds, who are considered to be in their prime working years.

A Hazy Picture of Manufacturing

Worries about the economy seemed to have peaked this summer, but the manufacturing picture is still clouded. Job growth in the sector has been weak. Julia Pollak, a labor economist at the online employment market site ZipRecruiter, said manufacturing postings have increased overall, but they differ radically by type. Listings for computer-related manufacturing jobs are strong, for example, but automotive listings have been weak.

The 40-day strike at G.M. and disruption in the aerospace industry stemming from the crash of two Boeing airplanes have also made analyzing underlying economic trends harder. Other measures of manufacturing activity have also provided conflicting signals.

President Trump stoked trade tensions this week when he said he would impose new tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina; suggested that his administration’s feud with China could continue for another year; and threatened European allies with new import taxes.

The White House’s unpredictable trade policy has unsettled businesses and cramped investment, which has hurt manufacturers in particular because they tend to be more exposed to the global market than many service businesses.

Friday’s release from the Labor Department will offer more solid information. “It’s very hard to know, so this jobs report will help us get a better sense,” Ms. Pollak said.

Wage Gains for Some

Economists are engaged in a vigorous debate about just how tight the labor market is and how many additional people could be drawn into the work force.

Mr. Trump’s more restrictive immigration policies have significantly shrunk the supply of foreigners who could come to work in the United States. Employers have repeatedly complained about labor shortages. And employment agencies have said that they are often unable to find candidates to fill open jobs.

The competition has helped push up wages, particularly at the lower end of the scale. At the same time, Amazon’s decision last year to raise its minimum wage to $15 across the country has turned up the pressure on other employers, particularly in lower-wage regions of the country.

“Everyone is struggling now to keep up with Amazon,” said John Dickey, who owns two Express Employment Professional agencies in Massachusetts.

Still, given the historically low unemployment rate, wage gains have been relatively modest, with the year-over-year growth rate at 3 percent. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, when the jobless rate sank to low levels, wage growth for nonsupervisory workers topped 4 percent.

One reason could be that there is still considerable slack in the labor market.

“We’ve blown past the estimates of what people think full employment is,” said Adam Ozimek, chief economist at Upwork, a freelancing website. “We continue to see people revisiting what their idea of a tight labor market is.”

Plodding wage growth would suggest that employers can tap into a pool of potential workers who are not actively seeking jobs but would like one.

One More Thing

If you want to know more about how the jobs report is put together, this story explains it all.

And remember, the monthly report provides a single snapshot of the labor market and by extension, the American economy. The overall trend is more important than any individual report.