Brace For Impact, The Worst Is Yet To Come According To COVID-19 Global Trends

Recently, Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe veered off script and stared straight into the cameras as he has been doing while addressing COVID-19 issues.

He had emerged from Afya House bearing some semblance of good news: There was no positive Coronavirus test in 24 hours since his last briefing. But the Minister’s face conveyed none of these good news. In fact, the contours on his forehead deepened.

“The fact that we have not announced any additional cases today does not mean everything is okay,” he said. Perhaps various data models were running in his mind, all of them painting a grim picture of what the future holds.

But this was not the scariest statistic in his mind. Neither is it the scariest number that is keeping members of the National Emergency Committee up at night. The thing that has thrown the government into panic is the future projections of the havoc that the virus can cause.

That though, has forced the government to issue a raft of directives, including the recalling of medical staff on leave, the suspension of elective procedures in hospitals as well as hiring of new staff in anticipation of the grim possibilities that lie ahead. The government’s cautiousness should scare you too.

An early study published by the New England Journal of Medicine on the early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 indicate that we are at the beginning of what might be a long journey that will test our healthcare system to its limits and possibly, as has happened in other countries, break it.

In its Coronavirus action plan done before COVID-19 was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organisation (WHO), the government described the above scenario as the “most likely” of the virus getting into the country.

The same government action plan predicts a worst-case scenario as well. There are unexplained respiratory illnesses reported in a community. Some of the sick will report to the nearby health facilities. Health workers are alerted and there will be initial response. The Ministry of Health is called to investigate the outbreak and it is confirmed as Coronavirus,” the action plan reads. “There is high person-to-person transmission in several communities in different Counties.”

“The system will be overwhelmed. There will be a very high number of contacts who will be dispersed across several communities and Counties,” the government action plan reads, before concluding: “A national disaster will then be declared.”

Other countries have already walked the path that Kenya is currently on. Recording near manageable numbers in the first three weeks before an explosion in the number of confirmed positive cases which, depending on medical response, might also mean more deaths.

But outside the gloom, Kenyans, like many people in African countries, have the chance to stay ahead of the curve by simply staying home to cushion the already burdened healthcare system and by extension, save lives.

If we want to save Kenyans we must do what those who have succeeded in addressing the disease have done. Otherwise, extremely dark times are ahead. Let us avoid a total and complete breakout of this disease.

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