Sinn Fein Surges in Irish Elections, Exit Polls Predict

Support for Sinn Fein, the former political wing of the Irish Republican Army, surged in Ireland’s national elections on Saturday, according to exit polls. Prime Minister Leo Varadkar’s party, in power since 2011, was weakened but the result left open the possibility that he could still hold onto his office.

If the exit polls prove accurate, the vote boiled down to a three-way tie in a three-way race between Sinn Fein, Mr. Varadkar’s Fine Gael party and the leading opposition party, Fianna Fail. This would give Sinn Fein a shot at joining the next coalition government.

A joint exit poll commissioned by The Irish Times and state broadcaster RTE showed Fine Gael at 22.4 percent, Sinn Fein at 22.3 percent and Fianna Fail at 22.2 percent.

Analysts said the center-left Sinn Fein was boosted by younger and urban voters angered by austerity policies implemented following the 2008 financial crash. It capitalized on frustrations over housing and health care crises largely blamed on Mr. Varadkar’s party.

Still, this result would offer a political lifeline to Mr. Varadkar who had been expected to finish third.

It could be a mixed bag for Sinn Fein and its leader, Mary Lou McDonald. If the exit polls are correct, the party won its highest-ever share of the national vote. But it chose to run only 42 candidates for the 180-seat Parliament and may have been able to take an even greater share had it fielded more candidates.

“People think the government has taken a deliberate decision to favor landlords over house buyers and fair rents,” said Jane Suiter, a professor of media studies and politics at Dublin City University.

“Sinn Fein have been getting young progressives on board, people who think the number of homeless is morally bankrupt, and who feel they have been left at the mercy of landlords and vested interests, free to charge what rent they like because ordinary people can’t afford to buy,” Ms. Suiter added.

Ireland has been moving in an increasingly liberal direction in recent years. Referendums in 2015 and 2018 led to the legalization of marriage equality and abortion.

While both Fianna Fail and Mr. Varadkar’s party have vowed not to partner with Sinn Fein given its past support for violence, the left-wing party could still emerge as a kingmaker and its ascension signals an appetite for a greater emphasis on social welfare after decades of dominance by the center-right.

Mr. Varadkar, who has led his party for only two and a half years, is Ireland’s first openly gay prime minister and the first with a non-European heritage. His father, a physician, is originally from India.