Stop peddling lies about devolution; it’s working well across the country

Paul Wafula, writing in the Daily Nation of April 29 mounted a spirited attack on devolution, charging that some county economies were shrinking “despite the billions sunk into devolution, worsening the lives of populations in those devolved units”.

A day later, this line of thinking was taking hold, with the editorial of the same newspaper chiming in that, “counties must work harder”.

We may never know what prompted such accusations and attack on individual governors.

The Economic Survey 2019 clearly showed that over the 2013-2017 period, per capita GDP increased by 12 per cent in Makueni, four per cent in Kericho, 9.3 per cent in Nyamira and 19.8 per cent in Laikipia.

In other words, the Gross County Product (GCP) in Makueni grew from Sh49,186 per person in 2013 to Sh56,100 in 2016, before declining slightly to Sh54,907 in 2017. Change for the period, positive 12 per cent.

Similarly, Nyamira’s GCP per person grew from Sh64,818 to Sh74,876 by 2016, before again declining slightly to Sh70,822 the following year. Change for the period, 9.3 per cent.

In Laikipia, GCP per person grew from Sh61,943 to Sh76,775, again before a slight dip to Sh74,205. Total change for the period, 19.8 per cent.

So, how is it possible to look at the same data and come to very different conclusions? It is not.

However, once you decide to tell a tale, or express an opinion, or worse disparage devolution, it’s possible to focus on that part of the data that seems to support your argument. This is exactly what Mr Wafula did.

Taking the numbers for a single year — 2017, Mr Wafula used the drop in that year and purported to draw far-reaching conclusions about the entire five-year period and the whole devolution enterprise.

It’s such selective and partisan use of data that caused British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli, at least according to Mark Twain, to say that “there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics”.

So, while it is true that when measured in constant 2009 prices some counties suffered slight reductions in the 2017 gross county product per person, it is not correct to conclude that the lives of citizens in these counties are therefore worse off “despite millions sunk”.

The true position is that all the counties quoted achieved growth in per capita ranging from four to 20 per cent.

What explanations can we offer for the slight drop in 2017? First, there was a major drought in late 2016 into 2017, reducing agricultural output.

In Laikipia for instance, the drought led to widely-reported farm invasions and death. Secondly, 2017 was an election year.

Typically, there is economic slowdown in most election years. And 2017 is unique for the repeated presidential election, which prolonged the electioneering period.