EDITORIAL: In the name of humanity silence guns in Ukraine

By The EastAfrican

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after a stand-off with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), has brought the spectre of a third world war ever closer. The crisis that has been building up for years also exposes the inadequacy of the current global security architecture.

Premised on the principle of mutually assured destruction, it never changed the basic mindset behind aggression — the search for superior advantage — and the power that confers on one to impose their will on others. The result is that the arms race continued unabated as each of the major protagonists sought a technological edge over its perceived adversaries. In such a situation, it was always a matter of time before one of the parties believed they had sufficient advantage to make a move.

With Russia bearing the weight of Western sanctions, NATO embarked on eastward expansion that rattled Moscow. With hindsight, Russia’s move on Ukraine might not be a war of conquest but rather an attempt to force a new conversation around its concerns about an increasingly overconfident NATO. Regardless of Moscow’s logic, the red line has already been breached and the future of the human civilisation now faces its most perilous threat.

As Western defence analysts have often said, Russia’s conventional forces’ disadvantage relative to NATO means that in any conflict where Moscow feels an existential threat, the nuclear trigger is never far from the hands of whoever seats in the Kremlin. Only restraint by NATO now stands between global peace and a conflagration whose magnitude and consequences cannot be imagined.

Even before it gets to that point, however, for Africa and the global community in general, the latest conflict between the major powers is not only diversionary but couldn’t have come at a worse time. The global economy was just starting to look up after the devastating disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. War will take crucial resources away from fighting disease even as the threat of new Covid-19 variants remains alive.

In a globally connected world, Africa cannot take comfort in the fact that the main action is far from its shores. A net import of energy and most manufactured goods, oil is a major transmission path for any global crisis to Africa. Prices for crude have already breached the $100/barrel mark and the effect will be felt through higher pump prices, more expensive consumption and lost competitiveness for the export sector. Managing rapidly rising inflation, currency instability, foreign exchange reserves and retreating international capital are just some of the headaches that await economic policy mandarins.

And it is too early to take comfort from the main action starting thousands of miles away. Host to Western military bases, some locations on the continent could become targets for long-range missiles. And, depending on how China responds, its African assets could become targets. As John Adams, US’s second president, observed, all through the ages, men have stood among the ashes and ruins of war to proclaim victory.

Victory premised on indiscriminate destruction is actually hollow. That is all the more reason to listen to the plea by UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres who said, “in the name of humanity… the conflict must stop now.”