Could influential CCM old guards planning to decamp the party?

By JENERALI ULIMWENGU

Rumours and suggestions that the Tanzania’s long-standing ruling party, CCM, is about to give birth to a breakaway faction could be just that, rumours and suggestions, because, basically, there is very little to suggest that any departure from CCM should necessarily be considered a breakaway. It might be just a departure of a couple of individuals or a couple of tens of them, no more.

Still, the local commentariat is abuzz just with the possibility that the behemoth that has ruled over this country for 60 years could be losing its grip on power if enough influential members decamp, and that is what is being suggested.

The suggestion is that some prominent members of the old party who were close to former president John Magufuli are now disenchanted with the new trends under his successor, President Samia Suluhu, want out, so they are organising for a new political home.

This cannot be dismissed with a nonchalant shrug, because Magufuli, give it to him, managed to cajole many people into believing that he was some kind of saviour. His oft repeated mantra, “One who tells the truth is God’s own beloved,” (even when he was really lying) made the gullible believe that he was a genuine article, a fighter against corruption and a true “man of the people.”

But, supposing they do really believe that kind of thing, would that be enough to make them quit the powerful ruling party for a new and untried outfit? Is it plausible that a few Magufuli acolytes, who came into prominence only because he promoted them often by handpicking them and without following proper procedures, now decide to abandon the all-providing party that has fed them up till now?

Everything is possible. The ruling CCM is not at all that party that Julius Nyerere founded 45 years ago. Then it was the successor to Tanu, a veritable liberation movement which threw in its lot with the less fortunate members of society and was committed to the political, economic and cultural emancipation of the downtrodden, both in the country and in the whole world. Literally.

What is left of that organisation is rather a motley collection of all manner of characters without any philosophical or ideological bond, whose only binding cement is their determination to retain state power and use it to feed their appetites for unbounded greed for material wealth.

The mortar that keeps the whole apparatus from crumbling is the control it maintains over the state machinery, which exercises control over economic and commercial activities—and the coercive forces, police and prisons services — which guarantee forced compliance with the status quo.

The foregoing is sufficient disincentive for anyone thinking of splitting. In the past those who quit were hounded everywhere, in their own businesses, in their non-payment of due taxes or their repayments of loans due to state influenced bodies. Even their spouses have been hounded out of their perfectly legitimate jobs and positions of leadership simply because they were deemed too dangerous to be trusted.

In a word, anyone associated with the political opposition has been treated like they are traitors. Is it likely to change in time to allow these rumoured defectors to the so-called “Umoja” party free rein, allowing them to go abroad and say what they please about the party they will have abandoned? Or, will what is good for the goose be good for the gander, so that those who made others’ lives miserable under Magufuli will expect no less than a hardened reality if they jump ship this time round?

I know they will be pursued and harassed, for that is the way CCM operates, and no one should lay this at Magufuli’s doorstep; he did not start it, he only exacerbated it.

From back at the time when this country was shoehorned into competitive politics in the early 1990s, our rulers have never been comfortable with the opposition.

For a party too long in an unchallenged status, it became difficult for CCM and all its baggage to accept novel challenges posed by younger, often smarter and sharper opponents , youth who tend not to show too much respect for molten thinking and tired ideologies.

So, there is a chance that the old CCM will want to continue doing business only as CCM has ever known to do business, by issuing commands, strictures and prohibitions, all of which may not sit well with the new breed of opponents, coming out of CCM and looking to give their erstwhile comrades a run for their money.

These new defectors may want to deploy their intimate knowledge of their old party and how to exploit them to embarrass the tired old party. And the new defectors may want, and be able, to deploy the name and image of Magufuli — this they have indicated — hoping it can bring them part of the political purchase the dead president may still have.

That could be a sizeable catch. And since CCM leaders are still, hypocritically, singing the name of Magufuli even as they are maligning him privately, maybe at that juncture, when true Magufuli disciples start waving the JPM banners, the old party, for which Magufuli did not have any respect, will come out and boldly state that the man was a sham?

Maybe?

Jenerali Ulimwengu is now on YouTube via jeneralionline tv. E-mail: [email protected]