The recent declaration by Deputy President William Ruto that he is not interested in joining or forming alliances ahead of next year’s general election seems to have laid bare an unseen ticking time bomb in his political camp. In an interview with NTV, he said his only ‘coalition’ or ‘alliance ‘was what he has directly with the voters.
That was not received well by two of his perceived pointmen in the vote-rich Mount Kenya region. The Service Party (TSP) leader Mwangi Kiunjuri and his Chama Cha Kazi counterpart Moses Kuria publicly disagreed with the DP.
Former CS Kiunjuri said every political leader needs a coalition to win elections and Gatundu South MP Kuria said that regional parties were vital to push for local development.
The DP’s statement seems to point in the direction of the decision in 2016 by 12 parties to merge into Jubilee Party. Having leaders elected under one party or a binding coalition has the advantage of enforcing discipline and averting premature political falling-out that could complicate the advancement of government agenda in Parliament.
Power-sharing
Political deals are negotiated in the form of power-sharing arrangements. The lion’s share goes to the party with the greatest might in terms of the number of votes expected to be delivered. Coalitions are formed and power shared among the players, which goes to the leadership of both Houses.
Among the well-known parties in the region are Narc-Kenya, Party of National Unity and Alliance Party of Kenya. TSP Chama cha Kazi, as well as Usawa kwa Wote party under Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria, are among the newest in the region.
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Earlier, Meru Governor Kiraitu Murungi had remarked that Jubilee is dead and that whoever wants to win an elective seat in 2022 should seek a new party. This suggests that most politicians will revive of form parties in the coming months.
Like-minded parties
Given the formula for political negotiations, it will be a big headache for Dr Ruto to craft a formula for Mt Kenya. He will have far too many people to negotiate with, each aiming to be rewarded with a lucrative post. If the BBI Bill goes through, there will also be the positions of Prime Minister and two deputies.
Forget not, Kenya has several other regions, with whose leaders he will have to negotiate with while disgruntled party leaders could defect.
The extensive Mt Kenya region’s 10 counties has more than five million registered voters, which could go up significantly if the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission meets its ambitious target to register six million new voters by next year.
The DP needs coordinated support in the region and with his foot soldiers publicly contradicting him won’t sit well with the electorate. But he could agree to form an alliance with like-minded parties in the region, though he’d still have to put up with a diverse membership.
Secondly, he can charm the region’s leaders to agree to his one national party idea and host the varied ideologies. Thirdly, he can turn a deaf ear to all that and engage the voters directly.
Mr Mutiga is an urban and regional planner. mailto:[email protected]