The Kenya Meteorological Department has revised the earlier forecast for the long rains season of March, April to May.
In a statement signed by the Kenya Meteorological Department Director Stella Aura is attributing the revised forecast to poor rainfall season as being due to the low pressures over the southern hemisphere and the high pressures over the northern hemisphere.
This means that the high pressure in the northern hemisphere is allowing dry winds into the country that cannot yield rainfall while the unfavorable Madden Julianne Oscillation (MJO), meaning “the spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall for the remainder of the season is expected to be generally poor over the whole country.”
She said the warmer than average Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian and Atlantic Oceans have led to low pressure over the Southern hemisphere hence the lack of sufficient energy and moisture in the region that would result into rainfall.
“This, coupled by higher pressures over the Northern Hemisphere, has delayed the northward movement and proper establishment of the rain-bearing Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ),” said Aura in the statement.
She further notes that the warming over the South Western Indian Ocean Basin was responsible for the formation of the intense tropical cyclones Batsirai and Gombe that hit Madagascar and Mozambique in early February and mid-March, respectively has further impacted the rainfall performance in the region and the country.
The Director explains that a weather system, the Madden Julianne Oscillation (MJO), which is also a key driver of convection over the Indian Ocean “that is only predictable at shorter time scales, is currently not favorable for wet weather activities in the country and is expected to remain unfavorable during the first half of April,” she further explains.
The Director in the statement says that despite the timely onset of rainfall over several parts of the country, “the distribution for the remaining part of the season is likely to be poor especially over the eastern sector of the country,” she says and adds, “A dry spell is expected over most parts of the country during the first half of April as had been indicated in the April forecast.”
The Weatherman warns that despite the timely onset of rainfall over several parts of the country, the distribution for the remaining part of the season is likely to be poor especially over the eastern sector of the country. A matter the Director of the Meteorological Service says will further have a negative impact on pasture and water availability for livestock in the areas that have been in the throes of a crippling drought.
“A dry spell is expected over most parts of the country during the first half of April as had been
indicated in the April forecast,” she says and adds that, “In May, the Western sector of the country is likely to experience enhanced rainfall and near average rainfall is expected over the Central and the Southeastern lowlands of Machakos, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, Kitui and Makueni counties.”
In the statement, Aura says that below average rainfall is expected over the Coastal and the Northeastern regions of the country.
The updates forecast indicates that during the remaining part of the season of April and May, near average rainfall with a slight tendency to above average rainfall is expected over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, Central and South Rift Valley and the Northwestern regions.
Near average rainfall is expected over the Highlands East of the Rift Valley including Nairobi County, the South-eastern Lowlands and parts of the Northeast (Central and Western parts of Marsabit County) while below average rainfall is expected over the Coastal strip and most of the Northeastern regions.
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