Tifa poll: Raila-Karua ticket most popular

The two front-runners of the August presidential election are running neck and neck against each other.

According to the latest poll by TIFA, Azimio la Umoja One Kenya presidential flagbearer is in the lead just days after choosing his running mate Martha Karua.

The Raila-Karua ticket enjoys a popularity rating of 39pc while Deputy President William Ruto whose running mate is Rigathi Gachagua follows closely at 35 pc.

Wiper Party leader and Presidential candidate Kalonzo Musyoka comes a distant third at 2pc.

With the official campaign period just 10 days away, the presidential hopefuls will have to go the extra mile to woo the 31pc of the electorate who have been identified by the poll as undecided.

“As of now, the presidential-contest pair of Odinga and Karua appear to attract the most voting intentions of Kenyans, though the Ruto-Gachagua pair are not far behind (39% vs 35%). But this leaves nearly the same proportion (31%) who identify with neither” the poll shows.

The poll released two days after presidential aspirants named their deputies, indicates that Azimio La Umoja is popular in five regions namely Coast, Lower Eastern, Nairobi and Western while Kenya Kwanza Alliance enjoys popularity in South Rift as well as Central Rift, Mt. Kenya and Northern zones.

Ironically, men than women support both Odinga-Karua and Ruto-Gachagua, although more than twice as many women as men remain undecided.

“With regard, to age, Odinga is somewhat more popular than Ruto among older Kenyans (43% vs. 35%), while younger than older people are yet to make up their minds (17% vs. 11%) about the presidential contest” reveals the findings.

Raila’s support has been on an upward trajectory and has grown by 7pc in the last month to stand at 39pc whereas Ruto’s has for the first time dropped by 4 percentage points to stand at 35pc.

“Whether this recent surge by the former PM is a consequence of the announcement of their respective running-mates – or due to some other factor(s) is unclear” stated lead researcher Tom Wolf.

He was quick to caution that with less than 90 days the race was bound to tighten.

“ With a significant proportion still either undecided or unwilling to reveal their preferred presidential candidate (total: 22%) and with still nearly three months remaining until the election, it is clear this contest is far from over,” he said.

Party popularity

UDA is the most popular party, rising from nothing to 30pc while Jubilee has diminished to 5pc from 40pc in the last 16 months.

Both UDA and ODM claim a substantial level of nationwide support while support for Jubilee and Wiper is concentrated in particular regions (Mt. Kenya and Lower Eastern, respectively).

As of now, no political party attracts the support of more than one-third of Kenyans (UDA at 29%), and another one-quarter (25%) who do likewise with ODM. Aside from a small minority who identify with Jubilee (3%),#TifaElectionsBarometer pic.twitter.com/NzhiPOEzgr

— TifaResearch (@TifaResearch) May 18, 2022