Shutting down Mr. Putin’s cash flow is an urgent moral and strategic imperative, but Europe is frozen in the headlights.
Some European experts claim that the war is not being financed by energy exports. This is entirely wrong. Mr. Putin’s regime is seeking to buy military equipment. With much of the central bank’s reserves frozen, Mr. Putin needs the hard currency he receives every day, and therefore Russia has continued to pump oil at full prewar capacity. The euros that Mr. Putin receives now goes directly toward firepower that kills Ukrainian civilians and destroys our cities.
The economic and energy minister of Germany, Europe’s largest economy, said that any reduction in current purchases of oil and gas would cause his country’s economy to crater.
But Europe already has enough gas to get to next winter, and the International Energy Agency has laid out a viable plan for conservation and alternative supplies, which would reduce European imports of Russian gas by more than one third. Germany is particularly dependent on Russian gas, but a study from the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina pointed out that a short-term suspension of Russian gas would be “manageable.” Additionally, given that Germany has low debt relative to G.D.P., the potential effects on lower-income people can be addressed.
In the meantime, payments for Russian gas should go into escrow accounts, so that the proceeds cannot be used to buy weapons. This is standard practice when there are sanctions. Russia has already imposed its own escrow requirement on foreign investors who receive coupon payments on their ruble-denominated corporate bonds.
In terms of oil, OPEC and other suppliers can provide up to an additional 2.2 million barrels per day within a month. These countries should have no interest in allowing the price of oil to rise too high, because that will sharply accelerate the long term transition to renewable energy. If you build strong sanctions on Russia, OPEC will pump more oil. Of course OPEC enjoys higher oil prices, but at some point that will backfire.
There is some concern as to whether an embargo on Russian oil would be undermined by smuggling. To address this issue, the president’s economic advisory team has established the Russian Tanker Tracking Group, which now follows every ship that lifts oil from Russian ports. You can hide many things in the oil business, but you cannot conceal the movements of large crude oil tankers that are visible from space.