From daily reports, the Covid-19 pandemic appears to be waning in Kenya, with new infections, hospital admissions and deaths being at an all-time low.
However, these numbers might be deceiving, according to experts, with some warning that this could be the lull before a storm.
In September, Dr Shem Otoi Sam predicted that the country could experience a fifth spike in infections and deaths this month. Using a mathematic model, Dr Otoi forecast close to 75,000 total infections, with 50,000 people developing mild symptoms.
The study published this year in the International Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics says about 1,000 people are likely to succumb if the fifth wave is mild but up to 3,000 lives could be lost if the infections are severe.
“We are dealing with a clever virus,” Dr Otoi, the Covid-19 programmes coordinator for the Lake Region Economic Bloc, told the Nation. “If you relax a bit, it attacks and the way Kenyans are behaving now, it will attack so badly if we don’t take care.”
He added that the fourth wave is gone and the virus is becoming endemic as more Kenyans have been exposed to the disease and developed antibodies. A disease becomes endemic when it is manageable but is unlikely to be eliminated.
However, the immunity will not last with the continued political campaigns, the expert warned. “With the little vaccination, the positivity rate will continue to rise towards the end of November and early December. So the best Kenyans can do is to adhere to the said measures.”
But the government and other experts are torn on Dr Otoi’s prediction, with acting Health Director-General Patrick Amoth saying the ministry is not clear on when the next spike will happen.
Covid-19 trend
“We cannot tell with precision if we will have another spike or when it is likely to occur, but we have a resilient system that will handle the numbers better than we were a year ago,” said Dr Amoth.
Prof Omu Anzala, a virologist and immunologist working with the Kenya Aids Vaccine Initiative, noted: “As a scientist involved in this research, I see a spike, not a wave, which is enhanced by cluster infections in the absence of public health and social measures.” He agreed that the disease is becoming endemic and less severity is likely to be witnessed.
He said the course of the virus will also depend on the number of people vaccinated.
“Natural exposure coupled with vaccination will keep the virus away,” he explained.
Dr Ahmed Kalebi, a consultant pathologist who has been tracking the Covid-19 trend in Kenya, believes the country is “definitely and most certainly going to have another wave that will coincide with the October-November flu season”.
“The big question is whether it will be just a blip or a big surge. That is difficult to tell especially now that the entire populace has thrown caution to the wind,” he explained.
National Covid-19 Vaccine Deployment Taskforce Chairman Willis Akhwale said: “We are struggling to come to terms with how the disease manifests but as it is now, the trend is not known. We just have to adhere to the measures and get vaccinated as we wait for the next wave,” he said.
Despite the uncertainty around the next wave, experts are confident that it will not be as bad as the third or fourth waves because a majority of the population already has immunity from past infection, and those who are vulnerable in the society have been jabbed.
Immune response
Available scientific data suggests that in most people, immune responses remain robust and protective against reinfection for at least six to eight months after infection – the longest follow-up is currently approximately eight months.
“It is still possible that there will be a spike, but it will not be severe because there is a large proportion of people who have natural and vaccine immunity. Even if we experience a surge, our health system will remain resilient,” said Dr Amoth.
For the last few days, Kenya has recorded no new daily Covid-19 deaths, even as the country pushes ahead with its vaccination drive. As of yesterday, close to 5.4 million had received jabs with over 1.6 million people having been fully vaccinated.
This is even as the country’s positivity rate stood at less than 1 per cent for the last two weeks. The latest data from the Health ministry shows that the country’s positivity rate stood at 0.8 per cent as at Tuesday.
Over that period, the now erratic deaths have been single digit, compared to the double-digit figures in the fourth wave. On Monday and Wednesday, the Health ministry reported zero deaths while on Tuesday, one patient succumbed to the virus.
“Our concern should be on vaccination uptake. We still have about 3.5 million doses in our stores,” Dr Amoth said.
“We have enough vaccines and are currently vaccinating about 70,000 people a day, apart from Sundays when we do close to 15,000 a day,” said Dr Akhwale.
