“I think it’s a slam dunk, not a reduction of competition,” said Robert Mann, an industry analyst and consultant. “It essentially reinforces the price discipline that D.O.J. relies on when they allow other things which arguably aren’t so good.”
But the combination would also consolidate the airlines’ hold over some airports. Together, Spirit and Frontier would hold a 26 percent share of the market in Orlando, Fla., more than any other airline, according to Cirium data for 2021. In Las Vegas, the combined carrier would have a 24 percent share, second only to Southwest Airlines.
As a result, the deal could pressure other carriers, such as JetBlue, Alaska Airlines, Hawaiian Airlines and Allegiant Airlines, to join forces through partnerships or mergers.
In addition to regulatory approval, Spirit and Frontier will have to renegotiate contracts with their respective unions, which were notified of the deal on Monday. Pilots at both airlines are represented by the Air Line Pilots Association, while the flight attendants for both are represented by the Association of Flight Attendants.
“Our first priority is to determine whether this merger will improve conditions for flight attendants just like the benefits the companies have described for shareholders and consumers,” the flight attendants union said in a statement. “Our support of the merger will depend on this.”
Spirit and Frontier have a combined fleet of more than 280 planes, with plans to grow to nearly 500 by 2026.
Spirit’s stock was up about 15 percent in midday trading on Monday, though it remained below Frontier’s bid of $25.83 per share, implying some skepticism that the transaction would be completed.