A group of economists at the Leopoldina National Academy of Sciences said in a report last month that a short-term stop of Russian gas deliveries would be “manageable” if the country could increase its reliance on other energy sources.
Robert Habeck, Germany’s energy minister, is scrambling to do just that, making trips to Qatar and Washington to secure energy partnerships. Already Germany has been able to reduce its dependence on gas from Russia by 15 percent, bringing it down to 40 percent in the first three months of the year, the energy ministry said.
But industry leaders have pushed back against imposing sanctions on Russian natural gas. Turning off the taps would cause “irreversible damage,” Martin Brudermüller, the chief executive of BASF, the chemical producer based in southwestern Germany, warned. Making the transition from Russian natural gas to other suppliers or moving to alternative energy sources would require four to five years, not weeks, he said.
“Do we want to blindly destroy our entire national economy? What we have built up over decades?” Mr. Brudermüller said in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung last week. “I think such an experiment would be irresponsible.”
The country’s makers of chocolates, snacks and sweets have also warned that gas shortages would spell doom for their ability to produce the high-energy food.
“Gas is the most important energy source in most companies in the German confectionery industry,” the Association of the German Confectionery Industry, or B.D.S.I., said in a statement. “The companies in the German confectionery industry produce food and are therefore of outstanding importance for supplying the population in Germany, especially during food shortages or other emergencies.
Over the weekend Lithuania announced it had halted all imports of gas from Russia starting in April. But natural gas accounts for only 11 percent of the energy consumed by the Baltic country of 2.8 million people, while Germany relies on gas for 27 percent of its energy needs.