After facing the looming threat of a no-confidence vote, Mr. Johnson’s political fortunes have rebounded markedly in the past six weeks, largely because the war in Ukraine has eclipsed the outcry over the parties. Even some of his harshest critics acknowledge that the time is not right to force out the government’s leader.
While Mr. Johnson has insisted he will not resign, he is not out of the woods. Downing Street has said it will confirm if the prime minister is fined, and once the investigation is complete, he has promised to release a full internal report on the scandal by a senior civil servant, Sue Gray.
Even a highly redacted version of the report, released at the end of January, painted a damning picture of the drinking culture in Downing Street, and it condemned Mr. Johnson for failing to exercise better leadership.
The police initially appeared reluctant to investigate allegations that illicit parties had been held in Downing Street. They announced their investigation only under intense pressure, after weeks of unflattering reports in the news media.
If the police fine Mr. Johnson — an almost unheard-of rebuke to a sitting prime minister — it could have a corrosive effect on members of his Conservative Party. Many were deeply angry about the scandal, which consumed the government in the weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.