In the 2000s, the United Nations labeled Guinea-Bissau Africa’s first “narco state” for the large amounts of South American cocaine that were landing there before being smuggled into Europe. The drug economy has fueled corruption in government and the military, destabilizing the country’s fragile politics, said Jonathan Powell, an associate professor at the University of Central Florida, who studies coups in Africa.
“The drug trade is important in Guinea-Bissau because it’s been so easy for that industry to hijack the loyalty of many folks in the upper echelons of the armed forces,” he said.
There have been 214 attempted coups in Africa since 1950, up to the recent one in Burkina Faso, Mr. Powell said his research had shown. Exactly half of them — 107 — have succeeded, he added.
Guinea-Bissau has seen several high-profile assassinations in the past two decades, including the killing of President João Bernardo Vieira in 2009, and a mutiny in which the army chief of staff was killed in 2003.
But the country has enjoyed a period of relative political stability since the last successful coup in 2012, in part thanks to what the United Nations termed a “peacebuilding mission.” But the mission was wound down in December 2020.
When President José Mário Vaz completed his term in office in 2019, it was the first time a democratically elected leader had done so in the country’s post-independence history. Even so, the prospect of another coup appeared not to phase residents as reports of another violent confrontation at the presidency began to circulate on Tuesday.
Reached by phone, several people described a growing unease in Bissau about the gunfire, yet said they were continuing with their normal activities.