The Kibra parliamentary by-election is likely to be the most expensive constituency campaign in the country’s electoral history going by the amount of money raised by one of the candidates.
According to highly placed sources, William Ruto has mobilised close to Sh300 million for the Jubilee party candidate MacDonald Mariga’s campaigns. Mariga has on his part raised over Sh200 million which brings the total amount for the campaigns to Sh500 million.
Ruto is determined to humiliate his main rival in 2022, Raila Odinga by staging a massive fight with cash to Kibra voters to sway them to vote for the Jubilee candidate, and repeat the feat he did in Langata in 2013 that saw his Jubilee candidate thrash Raila’s man. It has never sunk well with Raila that the MP in his Karen home is Nixon Korir.
Ruto plans to entice Luhya, Kikuyu, Kamba and Nubians to back Mariga as a bloc, leaving the ODM and other candidates to share the Luo votes.
The DP interprets the by-election as a rehearsal for his battle for the presidency with Raila in 2022.
Mariga, according to sources, has raised millions largely from betting firms, which are seeking to have a voice in the august House.
Mariga and former radio presenter Joey Muthengi are brand ambassador for betting firm, Betin, which mobilised other players in the sector in raising funds for the campaigns.
The betting firms are keen to have a legislator who will articulate their concerns in parliament and also mobilise MPs to rally to their cause.
According to a secret Jubilee Party report, Ruto aims at luring over 30,000 voters, most of them Luhyas by giving each over Sh5000 in total. The money will be dished to the voters in phases to ensure they remain behind the Jubilee candidate until the last day. This brings the total amount to be spent on buying voters to Sh150 million. The remaining sum will be used in meeting logistics as well as donation to churches, women groups and youths.
Sources aver that Ruto is trying to reach out to Nairobi governor Mike Sonko and former Langata parliamentary seat aspirant Stanley Livondo to lead Mariga’s door-to -door campaigns in the sprawling slum, targeting mainly the Luhya who are the majority. Ruto is aware of the Luhya factor in Kibera and that is why he picked Mariga,a Luhya.
Insiders well versed with Ruto campaign strategy say, out of five wards in Kibra, three are represented by Luhyas and voters in the area are aware the Luo have shortchanged them and it is revenge time now with the handshake politics.
The Luhya account for 36,000 voters, Luos 28,000, Kikuyus 25,000, Kambas 21,000, Nubians 13,000 and others comprising Kalenjins, Kisiis, Merus, Taitas, Maasais and Mijikendas etc 22,000.
Last week Uhuru Kenyatta endorsed Mariga in what political pundits say was a tactical move to see whether the March 9 2018 handshake between him and Raila has cascaded to the grassroots.
The Kibra by-election will put to test the handshake to see whether the residents in the area traditionally classified as Raila’s stronghold have embraced it. Kibra was one of the no go zones during the October 26 2017 repeat presidential election which Raila boycotted.
Already, nominated MP Maina Kamanda has endorsed ODM candidate Imran Okoth. He did so a day after Uhuru officially endorsed Maringa.
Kamanda made the announcement after meeting Raila at Capitol Hill in Nairobi.
“Kibra is the stronghold of ODM. We have fielded a candidate as Jubilee, the candidate was put there by Jubilee, but as a person, I will be with the candidate that has been nominated by ODM,” he said.
He said his support for Imran, brother of the late Kibra MP Ken Okoth, was in the spirit of the handshake between Raila and Uhuru after the 2017 election.
Kamanda’s move is a pointer to the widening rift with the Jubilee Party, which has witnessed internal wrangles sparked by Ruto’s bid to succeed Uhuru in 2022. Imran has however only elicited the excitement of Nubians something that has made other tribes to gang up against the Nubians whose numbers are insignificant anyway.
Since his unveiling, Mariga has been perceived as a Ruto project until Uhuru received and endorsed him for the race. The youth are however receptive to the soccer superstar who was coached by legendary Jose Mourinho and won the Europeans Champions with Italy’s Inter Milan.
Members of the Kieleweke, which is opposed to Ruto succeeding Uhuru in 2022, are expected to join Raila in his campaigns for the ODM candidate.
On the other hand the Tangatanga team, which backs Ruto for 2022, are expected to join him in his campaigns for Mariga.
Insiders add that the deputy president plans to donate close to Sh50 million to churches, youth and women groups in Kibra to rally them to back Mariga this as he also creates networks for his 2022 bid.
Kibra has been a beehive of activity as contenders in the November 7 by-election took their campaigns to churches.
Ford Kenya, Amani National Congress and ODM introduced their candidates to voters and asked for support.
Musalia Mudavadi and Eliud Owalo
Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetang’ula and his ANC counterpart Musalia Mudavadi accompanied their candidates Khamisi Butichi and Eliud Owalo.
ODM’s Imran on the other hand, was in the company of aspirants who lost the nomination to him.
Wetang’ula and his entourage were guests at Mashimoni Friends Church and Lindi Central PAG Church.
According to sources, Ruto also plans to visit local churches where he will dish out millions of shillings for projects of their choice.
He will later undo the gains Mudavadi and his team made when they attended service at Church of God Line Saba and Anduoso PAG Church in Lindi by visiting them and donating millions of shillings.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has cleared 23 hopefuls, seven of whom will be contesting as independent
The battle lines for the seat were drawn after Raila’s confidant went after Ruto moments after Uhuru endorsed Mariga for the mini poll.
The nomination of the Jubilee candidate for the November 7 mini poll had been invalidated by the electoral agency because his details were missing from the voters roll of 2017.
Wafula Chebukati said the returning officer who had blocked Mariga did not take into account the updated register from Starehe constituency.
Former Kakamega senator Bonny Khalwale is in Mariga’s corner. The race initially seemed to be Owalo’s to lose but the entry of Mariga is complicating matters for him as some fear that Mariga will split the Luhya vote that was in the bag for Owalo courtesy of ANC support.
Mariga is also advantaged in that he might have the Luhyas just decide to back him while Owalo being a Luo will split his tribe’s votes with Imran. As such, the winner will be the person who will appeal to Kikuyus and Kambas who cummulatively have 46,000 votes. It is this matrix that puts Kalonzo Musyoka in kingmaker position