The BBI factor in 2022 succession politics

The Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) appeared to many as ODM Leader Raila Odinga’s launch pad for the 2022 general election and a plot to ward off his arch-rival Deputy President William Ruto.

Even though the Supreme Court is set to begin hearing a petition challenging the Court of Appeal decision nullifying the process, Raila and President Uhuru Kenyatta allies appear to be keen to push through some of the proposals in the document.

As the country prepares for the upcoming general election, Raila is embracing small parties being created ahead of the election through his Azimio La Umoja as the Deputy President appears to be keen on strengthening the United Democratic Alliance Party (UDA).

The BBI met its untimely death on May 13th after a five-judge bench led by Prof Joel Ngugi declared the process null and void citing the basic structure doctrine of the constitution that insulates some clauses in the constitution from the amendment.

The court held that the BBI secretariat and steering committee failed to provide critical information to the public as outlined in the procedures to amend the constitution through a popular initiative.

The court also questioned the promoters of the bills ruling that the president cannot initiate a process to change the constitution through a popular initiative in the pretext of promoting national unity.

What followed would be a barrage of attacks by politicians who felt the Judiciary had acted out of its powers in making the ruling. On the other hand, those opposed to the process hailed judges for the nullification.

The nullification paved way for a legal battle at the court of appeal as President Kenyatta through the Attorney General and Odinga through the BBI secretariat sought to reverse the ruling.

On the 20th of August, the court of appeal dealt another blow to the process after upholding the ruling by the High court.

In a majority decision, six of the seven-judge bench, headed by the Court’s President Daniel Musinga ruled that the BBI process was illegal and unconstitutional but expunged part of the High Court orders including one that said that President Uhuru Kenyatta had contravened Chapter Six of the Constitution.

While Raila issued a statement claiming his party would move on after the decision, the Attorney General and the BBI secretariat revealed that they would launch another appeal at the Supreme Court with the hearing set for January 2022.

Raila has since taken a hasty retreat and supported the appeal lodged at the Apex court. President Uhuru Kenyatta on the other hand has on several occasions criticized the ruling by the court of Appeal accusing the Judiciary of usurping the rights of the more than 5 million people who appended their signatures to the BBI bill.

And as the prospects of BBI continued to deepen, politicians began to scheme ahead of the elections not for political relevance alone but for negotiations too.

Coalitions

The National Super Alliance (NASA) with an uneasy relationship after the handshake became more fragmented as Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi and Ford Kenya’s Moses Wetangula broke ranks with ODM Leader Raila Odinga to team up with KANU’s Gideon Moi to form the One Kenya Alliance (OKA).

OKA insists it will field one of its own as its Presidential candidate though it is yet to reveal the criteria it will use to identify the most suitable to be unveiled in January.

But OKA has one more headache, some of its principals appear to be warming up to Raila while others are completely opposed to teaming up with him.

And while the DP may be deemed to have an upper hand in the Mount Kenya region, Raila appears to be making huge gains in the region that may not produce a Presidential candidate in the next election.

A faction led by Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua, CCK’s Moses Kuria and TSP’s Mwangi Kiunjuri have been scheming to unite all the parties in the region to push for unity and the interests of the region.

They have since roped in the likes of former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo with the Mount Kenya Unity forum maintaining that they are yet to identify the Presidential candidate to support but insist that they will engage each of the candidates as individual parties.

The forum has rubbished calls by Deputy President William Ruto to fold up and join his UDA party.

Raila on the other hand is courting the parties in the region through his Azimio La Umoja movement.

With the fault lines already clear amongst top political actors in the country over BBI already visible, Presidential aspirants have already framed their politics to woo.

Ruto has picked the bottom-up economic model which he claims is the only solution to economic inequality in the country.

Raila on the other hand has dismissed the Bottom-up economic model as tokenism promising through his Inua Jamii, Pesa Mfukoni plan to empower every poor household and the jobless, with a 6000 shillings stipend every month.

ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and his One Kenya Alliance allies have promised to revive Kenya’s ailing economy and ensure double-digit growth while at the same time paying off Kenya’s external debt in under one year.

The latest to join the fray is Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua who has launched his presidential bid also premised on economic empowerment.