For now, William Ruto is perceived to be a front runner in the race to succeed Uhuru Kenyatta in 2022. This thinking is informed by the fact he is only major person one who has openly declared the interest to contest the president.
The opposition leaders, who are currently pushing the agenda Building Bridges Initiative, are yet to make such pronouncements. Instead, they would back Uhuru’s position that it was to too early and premature to talk about the succession politics. As elected leaders, we made a raft of promises during the campaigns. This is the time of implementing them, Uhuru would reiterate.
One would therefore expect the narrative to change when the opposition finally unveils its candidate. Kenya is defined by the regional and ethnic based politics and so the choice of the running mate would enhance the chances of those eyeing the seat.
For the DP, the question that would come to my mind is. Will he break the tradition and succeed Uhuru? Going by the history of independent Kenya, it is only Daniel Moi who succeeded a president. The rest would not make it.
Moi’s ascendancy was a unique one. It was occasioned by the death of the founding president Mzee Jomo Kenyatta and the constitution required him to serve for 90 days as acting president and thereafter Kenyans participate in an election to elect a new leader.
But as it turned out, Moi was lucky. He was confirmed as the president without an election being held. This is because he was the only candidate who was eyeing the seat on a ticket of the ruling party Kanu. Then, Kenya was under a one-party state.
For DP Ruto, it will be a different ball game. He will have to traverse the country and rally Kenyans to support his presidential bid. These are some of questions he would face. How do you expect to break tradition? What would you do differently? You have been the deputy president for 10 years, enumerate your achievements. This is in terms of helping Uhuru to move the country forward.
The line-up of the opposition leaders and their joint candidate would also give him sleepless nights. Kenyans will watch his body language and listen keenly to how he responds to the ills associated with him.
A section of leaders from Mount Kenya, who support him, driving a narrative suggesting that Uhuru owes him a political debt. To me, these utterances are ill-advised and intended to drive a wedge between the two leaders and their respective communities.
The 2013 pact they keep talking about was never made public. So, even if it existed, the Jubilee supporters are not party to it. Again, the leadership in Kenya is not hereditary. When the time comes, Kenyans will cast their votes to pick Uhuru’s successor.
In the runup to 2013 general elections, the same leaders piling pressure on Mwai Kibaki to support or hand over the baton to any candidate. This is despite fact Kibaki had signed MOUs with ODM leader Raila Odinga and later with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka.
The president has only one vote and there is no law compelling him to support the DP or any other candidate.
For now, Uhuru’s mind is focused on the Big Four agenda, handshake and the BBI process and believes Ruto is sabotaging his ambitions.