South Africa begins stepped moves towards lockdown as Covid-19 intensifies

Following closely World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines and input from specialists in South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s administration is demonstrating what developing countries can do to curb the Covid-19 pandemic, without panic or economic collapse.

The stepping up of controls, primarily on the movement of people, is designed to “flatten the curve” of likely viral infections.

In the latest efforts to contain the pandemic, South African authorities have refused entry to foreign visitors who have been in designated high-risk parts of the world.

Citizens are being called on to return home, where they are immediately tested and quarantined at ports of entry.

With some of the first South Africans to be diagnosed with the virus recovered or recovering, it is clear the real problem for every country is the roughly three per cent of the population considered high-risk for infection, serious disease and death.

Another roughly 10 per cent are expected to get sick enough to need medical care, even if some of these can be remotely managed outside hospitals.

South Africa’s transport minister Fikile Mbalula announced the closure of the country’s borders to visitors with possible exposure to the virus, saying the administration is focused on limiting every person’s exposure.

The purpose was explicitly spelt out — citizens must assist one another in flattening the infection curve, delaying as many serious hospitalisations for as long as possible to help stretched medical staff and treatment centres cope.

Further restrictions may be imposed on those already in place. In South Africa, public alcohol consumption is limited and gatherings cannot exceed 100 people.

There is also a crackdown on fake news, especially on social media.

It is likely there will be tougher public ordinances announced, designed to further restrict interactions and the free movement of people into and out of South Africa.

The minister said the government would publish regulations on public transport — minibuses, taxis, trains and buses — on Monday or Tuesday.

It seems likely that many other African countries will be closely watching South Africa’s efforts to limit the spread of the virus.

The stepped approach towards partial or complete lockdown in South Africa is being taken to protect the economy from the full impact of a runaway local epidemic and prevent the overwhelming of medical resources.

There would therefore be strict adherence to the regulations, Mbalula said, a point supported by police minister Bheki Cele, who said those disobeying emergency ordinances would be prosecuted.

If South Africa and other countries like Kenya follow the WHO advice, there will be “shelter in place” partial lockdowns in the coming week or so here and progressively across the continent.

These lockdowns, which are designed to keep non-essential workers at home, will begin in major urban centres, such as happened in New York on Friday, and progressively radiate out to peri-urban and rural areas, as the virus takes full grip in communities.

Full lockdowns, as in China, seem unlikely and unfeasible in most of Africa — but Italy has shown what happens if the virus is allowed to rage unchecked for long, as has Spain.

Authorities here are determined to avoid that outcome at all costs and are asking citizens to voluntarily surrender their right to free movement until at least the worst of the virus has burnt through the major portion of the country’s population.

If the citizens do not do as told, Ramaphosa’s ministers said, the government would tighten controls and enforce them. There seems, they said, no realistic option.

And so too for much of Africa as the virus spreads to encompass every country.