With return of Kalonzo to the fold, the election is Azimio’s to lose

 After weeks of meandering in circles, Kalonzo Musyoka rejoined the Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya coalition on Thursday. It wasn’t exactly the return of the Prodigal Son who was welcomed home with unrestrained partying and joy. It was more like a sullen acceptance that a difficult son was back after extracting hefty claims on the family estate.

With Kalonzo’s return, the election is now Azimio’s to lose. All the main regional bases are now covered. The only region of Kenya UDA can count on absolute supremacy is Rift Valley — and that’s just a section of it. Until a few weeks ago it thought the same of the Mt Kenya region. That was until Martha Karua happened along and changed the equation. UDA is still in denial of that fact, but it’s obvious they will have to adjust their Mountain calculations in the face of the new reality. While not quite unifying the Mountain, Karua has starkly divided it.

As things stand now, I would give Azimio the edge. On paper, the Azimio versus Kenya Kwanza Alliance formations look finely balanced countrywide. The flag bearers for both — Raila Odinga and William Ruto — are nationally proven Big Fish. Ruto’s vehicle, UDA, has already carved its space across the country. The only party it sees as a credible rival to its national ambitions is Raila’s ODM. Both parties have roped in regional allies who, however, don’t work seamlessly and whose sibling rivalries could become the untold story of this election.

 It is when we get to these supporting casts of regional players where matters get interesting — and complicated. On his own, Wiper’s Kalonzo probably outweighs the Musalia Mudavadi–Moses Wetang’ula pair, even without bringing in the Democratic Action Party (DAP-K) that came to life just the other day but which seems to have more than checkmated ANC and Ford-Kenya in the Western region.

In past elections, Kalonzo has demonstrated that his electoral strength in Ukambani is actually more than the combined clout of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula in Western, where ODM has been a major factor. Simply put, Kalonzo delivered more votes to Raila in 2017 compared to Mudavadi and Wetang’ula. What’s more, Kalonzo’s Wiper supporters also form an important voter segment in Nairobi and in the Coast counties of Taita Taveta, Kwale and Mombasa, which no coalition can ignore.

It was a tight call for Kalonzo. His burning desire to be on the presidential ballot had to be weighed against the enormous pressure from within Wiper that he risked losing all, not least his continued primacy in Ukambani, if he had run solo.

Of the Azimio affiliates, ODM’s strength is well known primarily in Nyanza, Western, Coast and Nairobi. Jubilee is much weakened today, but with potential for rejuvenation, though mostly as a Mt Kenya party. DAP-K makes no bones that its eyes are set in Western and in Trans Nzoia County. It considers the main threats to its turf to be ODM and UDA and less local minnows ANC and Ford-Kenya. DAP-K has so far shown its claws by orchestrating defections that have rocked ANC and Ford-Kenya in Luhyaland.

The strength of other Azimio-affiliated regional parties like United Democratic Movement (which Mandera Governor Ali Roba spearheads) in northern Kenya has yet to be assessed. Meru Governor Kiraitu Murungi’s ‘Bus’ is strong in Meru and Tharaka-Nithi, but it has to compete for space with CS Peter Munya’s PNU in the Tigania and Nyambene areas.

Apart from ANC and Ford-Kenya, other notable Kenya Kwanza affiliates are Chama cha Mashinani of former Bomet Governor Isaac Ruto, Moses Kuria’s Chama cha Kazi, William Kabogo’s Jibebe, and the Farmers’ Party. These are localised outfits whose front men are content with seeking gubernatorial seats. Mwangi Kiunjuri’s The Service Party had big ambitions that have since fizzled to whining that UDA is not giving its affiliates room to breathe.

Then there is National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi who joined Kenya Kwanza ostensibly through the Democratic Party. However, the party has since disowned him and moved out of the alliance, an act upheld by the High Court. In spite of his storied title and office, Muturi is a political lightweight. I am sure Ruto knows as much, but was more than eager to bring him on board because of his title.

However, the biggest question mark hangs around the Coast-based Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) launched by outgoing Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi. Will it make an impact at the Coast and thus threaten ODM’s dominance there? Already it is in a nasty tiff with UDA, its bigger Kenya Kwanza affiliate, in Kilifi County where its gubernatorial candidate George Kithi is facing off with UDA’s Aisha Jumwa.

Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua’s Maendeleo Chap Chap party, launched some years ago with much fanfare, doesn’t really have the clout to cause much injury to Wiper in Ukambani. In any case, what Mutua is likely to chip away for Kenya Kwanza will be more than compensated for by his Ukambani counterparts in Kitui and Makueni — Charity Ngilu and Kivutha Kibwana — who are with Azimio. The likelihood of small parties to significantly upset apple carts has been severely hamstrung by the new Political Parties Act, which bars party-hopping once candidate nominations are done.

There’s a story in circulation that Uhuru Kenyatta was advised by NIS to keep off the campaigns because his presence would be divisive and also harm his legacy. If the President has bought that line, he has been misled. Elections are always divisive and Uhuru’s withdrawal will not make this one less so.

As it is, UDA prays Uhuru keeps off the campaigning completely, hoping to keep the Mountain to itself. He would have to be a very strange politician not to have a plan to reclaim his home region.