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Kenya: How to Identify Who the President of Kenya Will Be After 2022 Polls

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Kenyans’ voting patterns are peculiar, but also consistent. In every election, 75 per cent of the MPs were sent home. And in every electoral cycle, Kenyans have chosen a president who appears more connected to wananchi: Moderate, peacemaker and not vindictive, innovative, communicator and messiah.

With the ongoing political machinations and ailing economy, Kenyans are getting fatigued by the same names. And the usual contenders are in their positions by virtue of inheritance or godfathers: President Kenyatta, the Jubilee Party chief, is the son of First President Jomo Kenyatta, ODM supremo Raila Odinga son of first Vice-President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and Kanu leader Gideon Moi son of second President Daniel Toroitich arap Moi.

ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi is the son of Moses Mudamba Mudavadi, a powerful minister in Jomo’s first two Cabinets; Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka’s godfather, Mulu Mutisya, handed power to him; Deputy President William Ruto was created by Moi’s YK92.

All are Kanu products. They directly or indirectly represent the past, the Kenya of 1963, when we gained independence, 60 years ago. They have thrived in control from the centre and an ethnically inclined population. But that will change.

The latest census shows 80 per cent of Kenyans are young not interested in the history. They not only want a good life, Kenya has also become more urbanised and citizens more critical and analytical.

Come 2022, a new crop of leaders will be in contention. But only one will be the winner. Among them are Dr Alfred Mutua, Mr Wycliffe Oparanya, Dr Fred Matiang’i and Hassan Ali Joho. Amid the palpable need for change, these are the likely scenarios:

Dr Alfred Mutua

The Machakos governor and Maendeleo Chap Chap party leader is youthful, well-educated and internationally exposed. He was at the centre of the well-performing President Mwai Kibaki administration. He will have done his 10-year tenure.

Dr Mutua has an enviable development record and no pronounced grudges. He is systematic, hands-on and organised. Being stylish, he attracts the youth. His party did well at its infancy in 2017.

Mr Wycliffe Oparanya

The Kakamega governor and chairperson of the Council of Governors comes across as a strong leader. He was a minister in the Kibaki-Raila “Nusu Mkate” Grand Coalition Government and is emerging as an alternative voice in western Kenya politics. But he has branded his politics regionally and not nationally.