Kenyans’ voting patterns are peculiar, but also consistent. In every election, 75 per cent of the MPs were sent home. And in every electoral cycle, Kenyans have chosen a president who appears more connected to wananchi: Moderate, peacemaker and not vindictive, innovative, communicator and messiah.
With the ongoing political machinations and ailing economy, Kenyans are getting fatigued by the same names. And the usual contenders are in their positions by virtue of inheritance or godfathers: President Kenyatta, the Jubilee Party chief, is the son of First President Jomo Kenyatta, ODM supremo Raila Odinga son of first Vice-President Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, and Kanu leader Gideon Moi son of second President Daniel Toroitich arap Moi.
ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi is the son of Moses Mudamba Mudavadi, a powerful minister in Jomo’s first two Cabinets; Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka’s godfather, Mulu Mutisya, handed power to him; Deputy President William Ruto was created by Moi’s YK92.
All are Kanu products. They directly or indirectly represent the past, the Kenya of 1963, when we gained independence, 60 years ago. They have thrived in control from the centre and an ethnically inclined population. But that will change.
The latest census shows 80 per cent of Kenyans are young not interested in the history. They not only want a good life, Kenya has also become more urbanised and citizens more critical and analytical.
Come 2022, a new crop of leaders will be in contention. But only one will be the winner. Among them are Dr Alfred Mutua, Mr Wycliffe Oparanya, Dr Fred Matiang’i and Hassan Ali Joho. Amid the palpable need for change, these are the likely scenarios:
Dr Alfred Mutua
The Machakos governor and Maendeleo Chap Chap party leader is youthful, well-educated and internationally exposed. He was at the centre of the well-performing President Mwai Kibaki administration. He will have done his 10-year tenure.
Dr Mutua has an enviable development record and no pronounced grudges. He is systematic, hands-on and organised. Being stylish, he attracts the youth. His party did well at its infancy in 2017.
Mr Wycliffe Oparanya
The Kakamega governor and chairperson of the Council of Governors comes across as a strong leader. He was a minister in the Kibaki-Raila “Nusu Mkate” Grand Coalition Government and is emerging as an alternative voice in western Kenya politics. But he has branded his politics regionally and not nationally.
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Dr Fred Matiang’i
As the Education minister, the Interior CS came off as a performer and no-nonsense administrator. A newcomer on the national arena plucked from academia, though very popular in his rural region, he has never contested a political position to understand “realpolitik”, which puts to question his ability to mount a national campaign.
But he can make a strong ally.
Mr Hassan Joho
The stylish Mombasa governor is a confessed political student of Odinga’s. His politics mainly involves political rallies, but there is uncertainty on his assembling a team of high-calibre strategists. Though he won a court case about his academic papers, educated youth may have questions about his academic track record.
To his credit, Joho has fought off claims of illicit businesses. His energy and zeal cannot be underestimated though: He is an asset to have in your team.
Dr Mutua is emerging as an alternative presidential candidate and is, clearly, a frontrunner, thanks to his national appeal. But he must embark on building a team that at least involves new faces or even those touted earlier as possible contenders. Then, his march to the House on the Hill will be a walk in the park.
You heard it here first.
Prof Theuri, a social scientist, teaches philosophy and ethics at Dedan Kimathi University of Technology. [email protected]